Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
